CLDAS温湿风产品在乌昌地区的适用性评估
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新疆维吾尔自治区气象信息中心(新疆维吾尔自治区气象档案馆)

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中央引导地方科技发展专项资金项目(ZYYD2025ZY21)、“天山英才”培养计划—科技创新团队(天山创新团队)项目(2022TSYCTD0007)和新疆大学“优秀研究生创新项目”(XJDX2025YJS064)共同资助。


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Evaluating the Applicability of CLDAS Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed Products located in Urumqi City and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture
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Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Meteorological Information Center (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Meteorological Archives)

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“Tianshan Talent” Training Program - Science and Technology Innovation Team (Tianshan Innovation Team) Project

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    摘要:

    基于2023年1–12月CLDAS 5km逐小时实况融合分析产品及乌昌地区地面气象站点实测数据,采用双线性插值法进行空间匹配,计算相关系数(COR)、平均误差(ME)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均相对误差(MRE)和均方根误差(RMSE),并结合Moran I指数和LISA聚类分析,揭示气温、相对湿度和风速产品的误差分布特征和空间异质性。结果表明:⑴ CLDAS气温、相对湿度及风速产品与站点实测数据的日变化趋势高度一致,能准确捕捉宏观天气背景下气象要素的时空演变规律;⑵ 小时尺度上,气温(r>0.95,p<0.001)和相对湿度(r>0.88,p<0.001)产品与实测数据的相关性较高,风速产品与实测数据的相关性略低(r>0.75,p<0.001),尤其是南部山区因地形动力参数化不足导致误差显著(RMSE≥1.56 m/s);⑶ 气温产品在平原区表现稳健(MAE≤0.76°C),但独立检验平均误差偏高(ME=0.53–0.67°C),反映局地微气候适应性不足;相对湿度在绿洲灌溉区系统性低估(ME=-0.83–1.24%),可能与蒸散发模拟缺失有关;⑷ 空间分布上,气温在准噶尔盆地误差较低,湿度在西南山区及绿洲区误差突出,风速在城区及山地误差显著升高。整体来看,CLDAS产品能有效支撑乌昌地区气象业务宏观分析,但复杂地形区(如天山山区、绿洲-荒漠过渡带)的局地微气候适应性需通过优化参数化方案及融合多源数据进一步提升。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) 5-km hourly fused analysis products by comparing them with ground meteorological station observations, which located in Urumqi City and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture region from January to December 2023. The methodology employs bilinear interpolation for spatial matching and calculates statistical metrics, including the correlation coefficient (COR), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Spatial heterogeneity of errors in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed products is further analyzed using the Moran’s I index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) cluster analysis. The key findings are as follows: ⑴ The diurnal variations of CLDAS temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed align closely with station observations, indicating strong capability in capturing spatiotemporal patterns under synoptic-scale weather conditions. ⑵ On an hourly scale, temperature (COR > 0.95) and relative humidity (COR > 0.88) exhibit high consistency with observations, whereas wind speed shows weaker correlations (COR = 0.65–0.83), particularly in southern mountainous areas where terrain-induced parameterization limitations result in significant errors (RMSE ≥ 1.56 m/s). ⑶ While temperature products demonstrate reliability in plains (MAE ≤ 0.76°C), higher independent validation errors (ME = 0.53–0.67°C) suggest inadequate adaptability to local microclimates. Additionally, relative humidity products systematically underestimate values in oasis irrigation zones (ME = -0.83% to -1.24%), likely due to insufficient evapotranspiration coupling. ⑷ Spatially, temperature errors are minimal in the Junggar Basin, relative humidity errors dominate southwestern mountainous and oasis areas, and wind speed errors escalate in urban and complex terrain regions. In conclusion, CLDAS products effectively support macro-scale meteorological analysis in the Wuchang region; however, localized microclimate adaptability in complex terrains (e.g., Tianshan Mountains, oasis-desert transition zones) requires further optimization of parameterization schemes and multi-source data integration.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-12
  • 录用日期:2025-06-12
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