河北省农作物风雹灾害经济损失定量评估模型及其适用性

Quantitative Assessment Model and Applicability for the Crop Economic Losses Caused by Wind and Hail Disasters in Hebei Province

摘要:

基于河北省1984-2024年风雹灾情和气象要素数据，采用回归分析和优势分析方法，构建了以极大风速、冰雹直径、降雹持续时间等为致灾因子的农作物经济损失评估模型。利用模型完善历史灾损序列，采用最优分割法划分了轻度、中度、较重、重度、严重5个等级，确定了不同灾害等级的致灾临界阈值并进行验证。最后，以2020年5月3日河北省风雹灾害过程为例对模型应用进行了演示。结果表明：1)农作物风雹灾害经济损失与最大冰雹直径呈极显著正相关，与最大风力等级呈显著正相关。2)构建的评估模型可比较准确的评估农作物风雹灾害经济损失等级，用于指导防灾减灾。

Abstract:

Based on the historical disaster and meteorological data of wind and hail disasters in Hebei Province from 1984 to 2024, an agricultural economic loss assessment model with maximum wind speed, hail diameter, and hail duration was constructed using regression analysis and advantage analysis methods. The model was used to improve the historical disaster loss sequence, then five disaster intensity levels were divided by optimal segmentation method, and the critical thresholds for each level were established accordingly. Finally, the model was used for wind and hail disaster assessment in Hebei Province on May 3, 2020 as an example. The results show that: 1) Agricultural economic losses from wind and hail disasters are significantly positively correlated with the maximum hail diameter and the maximum wind force grade. 2) The constructed evaluation model can accurately assess the economic losses of crop caused by wind and hail disasters, which can be used for disaster prevention and reduction.