米脂县苹果种植气候潜在适宜区及灾害 风险的定量评估

Quantitative Assessment of Climatic Potential Suitable Zones and Disaster Risks for Apple Cultivation in Mizhi County

摘要:

为评估1991—2020年米脂县苹果气候潜在适宜区及灾害风险分布情况，本文基于气象观测、数字高程模型、土地确权等数据资料，通过气候倾向率、M—K检验等方法分析了米脂县1971—2023年热量、水分资源变化趋势，开展了综合考虑气候、立地条件及农业用地存量的米脂县苹果气候潜在适宜区及其种植发展潜力和主要气象灾害风险敏感区分布的定量分析与评估。结果表明：米脂县近53年气候总体呈现温湿双增趋势，苹果生长所需水热条件适宜性增加；苹果气候潜在适宜区主要分布在海拔870~1 240 m的向阳缓坡丘陵沟壑区，气候潜在适宜区面积约20 064.0 hm2，约占可用农业用地53.2%；苹果气候潜在适宜区花期冻害气候风险轻度面积约11 752.2 hm2，中度约8 311.8 hm2；萌芽—幼果期干旱气候风险中度面积4 675.3 hm2，重度面积约15 388.7 hm2。该结果可为区域苹果产业布局优化调整和防灾减灾提供更加直接的参考依据。

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climatic potential suitable zones and disaster risks distribution for apple cultivation in Mizhi County from 1991 to 2020. Based on the meteorological observation data, the digital elevation model data and the land confirmation rights data, the changing trends for heat and water resource of Mizhi County from 1971 to 2023 were analyzed by methods such as climate tendency rate and M-K test. By integrating climatic conditions, site characteristics, and available agricultural land resources, this study conducted a quantitative analysis and assessment of the climatic potential suitable regions for apple cultivation in Mizhi County, evaluated their cultivation development potential, and identified risk-sensitive areas of major meteorological disasters. The results indicate: (1) Mizhi County has exhibited a warming and moistening trend over the past 53 years, enhancing the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for apple growth. (2) The potential climate suitability regions are mainly distributed in sun-facing gentle slopes of hilly-gully areas at elevations of 870~1 240 m, covering approximately 20 064.0 hm2 (53.2% of available agricultural land). (3) Climate risk assessment revealed: 11 752.2 hm2 of low-risk areas and 8 311.8 hm2 of moderate-risk areas for flowering-period frost damage; 4 675.3 hm2 of moderate-risk and 15 388.7 hm2 of high-risk areas for drought during sprouting-young fruit stages. These findings provide direct references for optimizing regional apple industry layout and enhancing meteorological disaster prevention strategies.