基于AHP-熵权法的河北省风雹灾害风险评估

Risk assessment of hailstorm disaster in Hebei Province based on AHP-entropy weight method

摘要:

基于区域灾害风险理论,从风雹灾害致灾危险性、承载体易损性和环境敏感性3方面选取了10个评价指标,采用AHP-熵权组合赋权法确定各评价指标权重,建立风雹灾害风险评估模型,开展了河北省风雹灾害风险评估研究。结果表明：河北省风雹灾害高风险区与较高风险区分别占总面积的9.3%和22.6%,其中高风险区主要集中在张家口市北部和中西部、衡水南部、邢台西北部和石家庄中东部地区,而保定、唐山及秦皇岛的中北部地区风险较低。评估结果能够较好反映河北省风雹灾害风险水平。

Abstract:

Based on the theory of regional disaster risk, ten evaluation indicators were selected from three aspects: the hazard-inducing risk of wind and hail disasters, vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and environmental sensitivity. The AHP-entropy weight combination method was used to determine the weights of each evaluation indicator. A risk assessment model for wind and hail disasters was established to conduct a risk assessment study of wind and hail disasters in Hebei Province. The results indicate that the high-risk and higher-risk areas for wind and hail disasters in Hebei Province account for 9.3% and 22.6% of the total area, respectively. The high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the northern and central-western parts of Zhangjiakou, southern Hengshui, northwestern Xingtai, and central-eastern Shijiazhuang, while the central and northern parts of Baoding, Tangshan, and Qinhuangdao have lower risks. The assessment results can well reflect the risk level of wind and hail disasters in Hebei Province.