1981—2023年山西汛期不同等级降水时空变化

Spatio-temporal Variation on Different Precipitation Grades in Shanxi Flood Season during 1981-2023

摘要:

气候变暖背景下区域降水变化研究对经济社会发展具有重要意义。基于山西108个国家气象站1981—2023年汛期逐日降水资料，应用气候趋势系数、线性倾向估计、相似系数等统计方法，研究山西汛期不同等级降水日数、降水量及极端降水时空变化。结果表明：1981—2023年山西汛期区域平均的总降水日数、小雨日数及小雨量均呈减少趋势，大雨和暴雨日数及总降水量、大雨及以上量级降水量均呈增加趋势，其中暴雨日数增加显著、小雨量减少较显著、大雨及以上量级降水量增加较显著；平均中雨日数和中雨量几乎无线性趋势变化；汛期降水日数主要由小雨日数决定，降水量则主要由大雨及以上量级降水决定；小雨日数、小雨量显著减少区主要位于盆地区域，暴雨日数、大雨及以上量级降水量显著增加区主要位于中北部的忻州、吕梁、晋中区域中；山西汛期大部地区极端降水日数增加、强度增强。

Abstract:

The study of regional precipitation change under the background of climate warming is of great significance to economic and social development. Based on the daily precipitation data in Shanxi flood season during 1981-2023 from 108 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province, the temporal and spatial variations of days and precipitation on different precipitation grades and extreme precipitation in Shanxi flood season were studied by using statistical methods of climate trend coefficient, linear tendency estimation and similarity coefficient. The results show that: The regional average of total rain days, light rain days and light rain precipitation all show linear decreasing trend, while the regional average of heavy rain days, rainstorm days and total precipitation, precipitation of heavy rain and above grades all show increasing trend in Shanxi flood season during 1981-2023, among them, the rainstorm days increases significantly, the light rain precipitation decreases relatively significant, and the precipitation of heavy rain and above grades increases relatively significant; The regional average days and precipitation of moderate rain exhibit negligible linear trend change. In Shanxi flood season, the days of precipitation is mainly determined by the light rain days, and the total precipitation is mainly determined by the precipitation of heavy rain and above grads. In Shanxi flood season, the significantly decreasing areas of the light rain days and light rain precipitation locate mainly in the basins areas, the significantly increasing areas on the rainstorm days and the precipitation of heavy rain and above grads mainly locate among Xinzhou, Jinzhong and Lvliang; The extreme precipitation days has increased and the extreme precipitation intensity has strengthened in most areas in Shanxi during flood season from 1981-2023.