新气候态下新疆棉花种植气候适宜性区划

Climate suitability zoning for cotton cultivation in Xinjiang under the new climate regime

摘要:

基于新气候态下新疆105个国家气象站1991-2020年气候观测资料，本研究采用GIS空间细网格推算模型，对影响棉花生长主要气候因子≥l0℃积温、无霜期和7月平均气温进行空间插值分析。结合不同熟性棉花的气候适宜性区划指标体系，运用空间叠加分析法，将新疆棉区划为五个气候适宜性等级：中熟棉区集中分布于天山东段的吐鲁番盆地和哈密盆地；中早熟棉区主要分布在塔里木盆地边缘的北部、西北部、西部及西南部；早熟棉区主要位于古尔班通古特沙漠以南、准噶尔盆地南缘及天山北坡山前倾斜平原；特早熟棉区分布于伊犁河谷、塔额盆地、焉耆盆地以及博尔塔拉蒙古自治州和克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州的部分区域；不宜棉区广泛分布于阿尔泰山、天山和昆仑山区及其山前高海拔、高纬度地带。该区划结果为新疆棉花生产布局优化提供了科学依据，有助于促进棉花种植向优势产区集中，同时为粮棉协调发展的科学规划提供气候依据。

Abstract:

Based on climate observation data from 105 national meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1991-2020 under the new climatic normals, this study employed a GIS-based spatial fine-grid interpolation model to analyze the spatial distribution of key climatic factors influencing cotton growth, including ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, frost-free period, and July mean temperature. By integrating the climate suitability zoning index system for cotton varieties with different maturity groups and applying spatial overlay analysis, we classified the cotton cultivation regions in Xinjiang into five climate suitability categories: The mid-maturing cotton zone, predominantly concentrated in the Turpan and Hami basins of the eastern Tianshan Mountains; The early-mid-maturing cotton zone, mainly distributed along the northern, northwestern, western, and southwestern margins of the Tarim Basin; The early-maturing cotton zone, primarily located in the piedmont sloping plains south of the Gurbantünggüt Desert and the southern margin of the Junggar Basin, extending to the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains; The ultra-early-maturing cotton zone, distributed across the Ili River Valley, Tacheng Basin, Yanqi Basin, and parts of the Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture; The non-suitable cotton zone, extensively covering the Altai, Tianshan, and Kunlun Mountains and their high-altitude, high-latitude foothills. This zoning framework provides a scientific basis for optimizing cotton production layout in Xinjiang, facilitating the concentration of cotton cultivation in advantageous regions, while offering climatological support for scientific planning of coordinated grain-cotton development.