唐山地区太阳辐射时空特征

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Solar Radiation in Tangshan

摘要:

利用唐山市11个气象观测站1990～2023年的逐日最高气温、最低气温、日照时数资料以及乐亭辐射观测站同期的逐日太阳总辐射资料，基于日照百分率与气温日较差综合模型计算唐山市各气象观测站（除乐亭）的太阳总辐射，通过经验正交函数分解(EOF)、旋转经验正交函数分解（REOF）、Mann-Kendall 突变检验、经验模态函数分解（EMD）等方法分析唐山市太阳辐射时空变化特征。结果表明：EOF第1模态反映了全区一致的变化特点，在20世纪90年代显著上升，21世纪初显著下降。太阳辐射在2006年发生突变，在突变点附近经历了“多-少-多”变化。EOF第2模态反映了太阳辐射东西反向变化的特点，年代际变化与第1模态一致但没有发生突变。REOF空间分型有6个，分别为北部型、西部型、西北部型、南部沿海型、中南部型、东部型。唐山地区光伏系统最佳倾角35°到37°，接近当地纬度略有偏低，最佳倾角斜面上的年平均总辐射为5717 MJ/m2～6253 MJ/m2。

Abstract:

By utilizing daily maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine duration data from 11 meteorological observation stations in Tangshan from 1990 to 2023, along with daily total solar radiation data from the Lao-ting Radiation Observation Station during the same period, the total solar radiation at each meteorological station in Tangshan (except Lao-ting) was calculated. This calculation was based on a comprehensive model incorporating sunshine percentage and diurnal temperature range. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of solar radiation in Tangshan were analyzed using methods such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) decomposition, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test, and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). The results indicate that the first EOF mode reflects a consistent regional variation pattern, with a significant increase in the 1990s and a notable decrease in the early 21st century. Solar radiation underwent an abrupt change in 2006, exhibiting a "more-less-more" pattern near the change point. The second EOF mode reflects the east-west inverse variation characteristics of solar radiation, with interdecadal changes consistent with the first mode, but without abrupt changes. The REOF spatial patterns are categorized into six types: northern, western, northwestern, southern coastal, central-southern, and eastern spatial distributions. The optimal tilt angle for photovoltaic systems in Tangshan ranges from 35°to 37°, which is slightly below the local latitude. The annual average total radiation on the surface with the optimal tilt angle varies from 5717 MJ/m2 to 6253 MJ/m2.