基于多元数据和模式耦合的山西南部一次高压输电线异常覆冰事件诊断分析

Diagnosis and Analysis of a High-Voltage Transmission Line Abnormal Icing Event in Southern Shanxi Based on Multivariate Data and Pattern Coupling

摘要:

采用常规气象观测资料、FNL和EAR5再分析资料对山西地区一次高压输电线覆冰事件进行分析，并利用中尺度数值模式WRF耦合Jones积冰模型对覆冰厚度进行模拟，结果表明：（1）此次覆冰事件是一次由冻雨导致的典型降水型覆冰事件，冷暖气团相互作用形成的“冷-暖-冷”层结结构是此次覆冰事件的天气学背景；（2）整体上，WRF模拟的降水场与地面风场和实况具有较好的一致性，可以作为积冰模型的输入值；（3）Jones积冰模拟显示13日0时输电线开始出现覆冰现象，06-10时及16-19时覆冰厚度快速增加，19时覆冰厚度达16.35 mm；（4）耦合了Jones积冰模型的WRF模式模拟的输电线覆冰厚度较实况偏小，但模拟的覆冰厚度超出设备阈值时间与实际断电时间一致，表明模型对此次覆冰事件的预测具有一定的可参考性。

Abstract:

An analysis of a high-voltage power line icing event in Shanxi province was conducted using conventional meteorological observation data, FNL and EAR5 reanalysis data. The icing thickness was simulated using the Jones icing model coupled with the mesoscale numerical model WRF. The results showed that: (1) This icing event was a typical precipitation-type icing event caused by freezing rain, with a "cold-warm-cold" stratification structure formed by the interaction of cold and warm air masses serving as the meteorological background. (2) Overall, the simulated precipitation and surface wind fields by WRF show good agreement with the observations, indicating their suitability as input values for the icing model.(3)The Jones icing model simulation showed that icing on the power lines began at 00:00 on the 13th, with ice thickness rapidly increasing between 06:00—10:00 and 16:00—19:00, reaching a maximum thickness of 16.35 mm at 19:00.(4) Although the ice thickness simulated by the Jones icing model coupled with WRF model was slightly less than observed, the timing of ice thickness exceeding the equipment threshold matched the actual power outage times, demonstrating the model"s relevance and potential accuracy in forecasting such icing events.