ROSE2.1南昌雷达2021-2023年定量降水估测产品检验评估

ROSE 2.1 Nanchang Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Product Inspection and Evaluation for 2021-2023

摘要:

基于天擎的中国地面逐小时数据“SURF_CHN_MUL_HOR”，对南昌CINRAD/SAD双偏振雷达2021-2023年ROSE2.1系统的产品号分别为078、079、169、170的四类定量降水估测产品进行了检验评估。结果表明：078、169两类一小时定量降水估测（OHP）产品和079、170两类三小时定量降水估测（THP）产品均具有一定补充监测作用。定量降水估测能力，双偏振产品效果好于单偏振，OHP优于THP，降水强度越小越优，距离越近越优；在半径50～150 km双偏振对单偏振产品效果提升最大，OHP和THP产品准确率分别提升25～34%和18～32%，这可能与双偏振能改善南昌雷达地物回波和建筑物遮挡作用有关；OHP169产品和THP170产品在南昌雷达站周边大约3万 km2面积内准确率高于80%；春夏季表现最好，秋季次之，冬季较差；对流性降水好于稳定性降水。

Abstract:

The system inspection and evaluation the official weather radar software of china (Radar Operational Software Engineering version 2.1, ROSE2.1) is helpful to refine the short-term forecast and early warning and to improve the quantitative precipitation estimation algorithm. For the four types of quantitative precipitation estimation ROSE2.1 products named 078, 079, 169, 170, through spatio-temporal matching and recalculation evaluation index method, the spatial, seasonal, precipitation levels and precipitation properties were discussed by hourly analysis from 2021 to 2023. The results show: for quantitative precipitation estimation capabilities, dual polarization products are better than single polarization, OHP is better than THP, Precipitations with smaller levels and closer distances are better; In the radius of 50 ~ 150 km, the effect of dual polarization on single polarization product is the greatest, the accuracy of OHP and THP products can increase by 25-34% and 18-32% respectively, which may be related to the improvement of ground echo and building occlusion by dual polarization; the accuracy of OHP169 and THP170 products is higher than 80% in the area of 30,000 km2 around Nanchang radar station; spring is the best, followed by summer and autumn, winter is worse; convective precipitation is better than stable precipitation.