宁夏北部小风寡照气候特征及风光资源互补分析

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of Little Wind with Little Sunlight and Complementarity of Wind and Solar Energy Resources in Northern Ningxia

摘要:

选取2007—2020年银川、石嘴山、陶乐、青铜峡等四个宁夏北部具有代表性气象站的逐小时10 m高度风速均值和银川站逐小时总辐照度，统计分析其小风、寡照及小风寡照3种影响新能源发电的特定天气出现时长及频率变化，得出其气候特征及互补性影响分析：（1）小风寡照日均时长为14.3 h，基本呈正态分布，相比单一的小风和寡照时长，分别减少了近4 h和3 h，表明该地风光资源互补性较好；（2）小风寡照日均时长在3—5月最低，最有利于风光互补发电出力，9—次年1月最高，新能源发电出力最弱；（3）3种天气出现次数随持续时间增加而显著下降，秋冬季是其长时间持续的多发季节。根据上述特点提出在新能源规划、消纳和储能配置等方面的不同参考建议，以期减少小风寡照天气造成的风光资源长时段缺乏带来的电力短缺风险。

Abstract:

Based on the average hourly wind speed at a height of 10m of four representative meteorological stations in northern Ningxia, including Yinchuan, Shizuishan, Taole, and Qingtongxia, and the hourly total irradiance of Yinchuan station from 2007 to 2020, analyzed the changes in the occurrence duration and frequency of three specific weather types: little wind, little sunlight, little wind with little sunlight. We obtained the climate characteristics as follows: 1) The average daily duration of little wind with little sunlight is 14.3 h, which is basically normal distribution. Compared with a single little wind or little sunlight duration, they have decreased by nearly 4 hours and 3 hours respectively, which indicates that the complementarity of wind and solar energy resources is good in the area. 2) The average duration of little wind with little sunlight is the lowest from March to May, which is most conducive to wind and solar complementary power generation. And it is the highest from September to January of the following year, which is adverse to new energy generation. 3) The occurrence frequency of three types of weather decreases significantly with the duration increasing. Autumn and winter are their long-term and frequent seasons. According to the above characteristics, different reference suggestions are proposed for new energy planning, consumption, and storage configuration to reduce the risk of power shortage caused by long-term lack of wind and solar resources due to little wind with little sunlight weather.