基于AET和PET的遵义干旱特征及其对农业生产的影响

摘要:

基于1981—2023年遵义12个国家气象站逐日气象资料，获得AET和PET数据，通过趋势分析、突变检验、主成分分析等方法研究了解全球气候变暖背景下遵义干旱特征及其对农业生产的影响，科学应对干旱灾害。结果表明：近43 a，遵义中部趋于“暖干化”，北部、南部边缘趋于“暖湿化”变化；在2019年前总体表现为非干旱特征，2019年后表现出干旱特征，特别是2016年后干旱影响明显加强，未来干旱影响还将持续加深；空间分布上遵义整体呈现非干旱区特征，AET和PET差值表现为西南、东北向西北、东南减少的分布，并呈现持续减少趋势；目前遵义干旱主要对玉米的生产带来了不利影响，随着气候变化还将不断加重，需要提前做好应对。

Abstract:

Based on daily data from 12 meteorological stations in Zunyi (1981-2023), obtained AET and PET data, Analyzed using trend analysis, change point tests, and PCA, Studying Zunyi"s drought patterns under global warming and its agricultural impacts to inform drought mitigation strategies. Results show central Zunyi becoming "warmer and drier," while edges trend "warmer and wetter" over 43 years. Before 2019, non-drought; post-2019, drought characteristics, intensified post-2016, with deepening impacts expected.Spatially, Zunyi shows non-drought traits; AET and PET difference decreases from SW to NE and NW to SE, trending downward.Zunyi"s drought mainly hurts maize production now, worsening with climate change, necessitating proactive measures.