2001—2023年安徽省植被NDVI时空变化特征及驱动力分析

摘要:

植被是陆地碳汇的主体，利用归一化植被指数（Normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）分析时空变化特征与驱动因子的关系在区域生态稳定研究中具有重要意义。本文利用2001—2023年MODIS数据，采用线性回归、趋势分析法、Hurst指数分析安徽省植被NDVI的时空分布特征和未来变化趋势，并通过地理探测器对其的驱动力进行探索。结果表明:（1）2001—2023年安徽省植被NDVI大部分区域呈现升高趋势，时间变化速率表现为皖中＞皖南＞皖北；而空间分布格局表现为皖南＞皖北＞皖中。（2）该时段内，安徽省植被NDVI变化趋势以改善趋势为主导，约占全省面积的45.15%。（3）通过Hurst指数的计算，发现未来安徽省植被NDVI的年际变化与2001—2023年间NDVI的年际变化并不一致，其未来植被NDVI的变化趋势由增加趋势占主导变为减少趋势占主导。（4）地理探测器在2001，2005，2010，2015和2020年这5个时期中，因子探测结果表明土壤类型的解释力最强，交互探测结果表明夜间灯光指数与土壤类型交互作用的解释力最强。本文探究安徽省植被NDVI的长期变化趋势以及驱动力，以期为未来的生态保护提供参考。

Abstract:

Vegetation is the main body of terrestrial carbon sinks, and analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is of great significance in regional ecological stability research. In this paper, MODIS data from 2001 to2023 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and future change trends of NDVI in Anhui Province using linear regression, analysis, and Hurst index analysis, and the driving forces were explored using the geographical detector. The results show that:（1）From 200 to 2023, the NDVI of vegetation in most areas of Anhui Province showed an increasing trend, with the temporal change rate showing a of central Anhui > southern Anhui > northern Anhui; while the spatial distribution pattern was southern Anhui > northern Anhui > Anhui.（2）During this period, the NDVI of vegetation in Anhui Province was dominated by an improvement trend, covering about 45.15% of the province's area.（3）By calculating the Hurst index, it was found that the inter-annual changes in NDVI vegetation in Anhui Province in the future will not be consistent with the inter-annual changes in NDVI from 2001 to 2023, and the future trend of NDVI changes will shift from an increasing trend to a decreasing trend.（4）The geographical detector results in 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 show that soil type has the strongest power, and the interaction between night-time light index and soil type has the strongest explanatory power in the interaction detection results. This paper explores the long-term change trends driving forces of NDVI in Anhui Province, providing a reference for future ecological protection.