2023/2024年冬季新疆区域寒潮过程特征

Characteristics of the Cold Wave Process in Xinjiang during the Winter of 2023/2024

摘要:

利用新疆105站地面日值、北极涛动（AO）等气候指数、NOAA卫星向外长波辐射（OLR）数据及全球同化系统GDAS资料，分析寒潮过程前后气候模态变化、追踪寒潮过程冷空气来源，探究2023/2024年冬季新疆区域寒潮过程特征。结果表明，2023/2024年冬季新疆区域寒潮频次为2次，较常年偏多0.4次；区域寒潮平均强度为2.39，较常年偏强0.65。AO的负异常、经向环流的增强、OLR的减少均有利于新疆区域寒潮过程的发生发展。2023/2024年冬季新疆区域寒潮过程冷空气路径分为偏西和西北路径，通过不同高度的冷空气轨迹分布发现冷空气主要集中在400 hPa和750 hPa，关注其变化对延伸期预测冬季寒潮过程有重要指导意义。

Abstract:

Using the daily ground data from 105 stations in Xinjiang, climate indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), NOAA satellite outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data, and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data, we analyzed the changes in climate patterns before and after the cold wave process, tracked the source of cold air during the cold wave process, and explored the characteristics of the cold wave process in Xinjiang during the winter of 2023/2024. The results indicate that Xinjiang experienced 2 cold wave events during the 2023/2024 winter, which is 0.4 more than the long-term average. The average intensity of these cold waves was 2.39, 0.65 stronger than the long-term average.The negative anomaly of AO, the enhancement of meridional circulation, and the decrease of OLR are all conducive to the occurrence and development of cold wave processes in Xinjiang. The cold air path of the cold wave process in Xinjiang in the winter of 2023/2024 is divided into westward and northwestward paths. Through the three-dimensional spatial distribution of cold air trajectories at different heights, it is found that the cold air is mainly concentrated at 400 hPa and 750 hPa. Paying attention to its changes is of great significance for guiding the prediction of the winter cold wave process in the extended period.