基于GIS的陕西省大风灾害风险区划

Risk zoning of wind disaster in Shaanxi province based on GIS technology

摘要:

[目的]大风灾害突发性较强，危害较大，开展大风灾害风险评估与区划研究对各地区灾害防御工作意义重大。[方法]利用陕西省内97个国家气象站 1978~2022年的大风观测数据、社会经济数据和地理信息数据等，构建大风气象灾害风险评价指标体系，对陕西大风自然灾害风险做出定量化评估。[结果]陕西省大风致灾危险性以低和较低等级为主，占全省总面积的72.8%，较高和高危险性占比较小，共占全省面积的9.8%。危险性等级以陕北北部最高，其次为秦岭高海拔地区。但是考虑孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力后，得到的大风灾害风险则以中等及以上风险为主，中、较高和高风险均占全省总面积的20%以上。区域分布以陕北北部、关中大部和商洛东北部小部分地区风险最高，其次为陕北南部和关中北部。从风险区划各指标分布来看，陕北北部的高风险性主要是致灾因子和孕灾环境敏感性较高共同引起的，关中大部主要是由于承灾体易损性最高，商洛北部则是由于孕灾环境敏感性较高引起的。[结论]人口密集区、工业集聚区和高海拔地区是大风灾害易发区，可针对引起大风灾害的主要风险指标采取相应应对措施来减少大风灾害造成的社会经济损失。

Abstract:

[Introduction] Wind disaster has strong sudden occurrence and great harm. It is of great significance to carry out risk assessment and regionalization research of Wind disaster for disaster prevention in various regions. [Method] Based on the disaster risk theory, using the wind observation data of 97 national weather stations in Shaanxi Province from 1978 to 2022, combined with socio-economic data and geographic information data, the index system of wind meteorological disaster risk assessment was constructed to quantitatively evaluate the wind disaster risk in Shaanxi Province. [Result] The disaster-inducing risk of wind disaster is mainly low and lower, accounting for 72.8% of the total area of the province, while the high and higher risk account for a relatively small proportion, accounting for 9.8% of the total area of the province. The wind disaster-inducing risk is highest in northern Shaanxi, followed by the high altitude area of Qinling Mountains. However, considering the environmental sensitivity, vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies and disaster prevention and mitigation ability, the wind disaster risk is mainly medium and above risk, the medium, high and higher risk all account for more than 20% of the total area of the province. The wind disaster risk is highest in northern Shaanxi, most of Guanzhong and a small part of northeast Shangluo, followed by southern Shaanxi and northern Guanzhong. According to the index distribution of risk zoning, the high risk in the northern part of Northern Shaanxi is mainly caused by the high sensitivity of disaster factors and disaster pregnancy environment, the high risk in Guanzhong is mainly caused by the highest vulnerability of disaster bearing body, and the northern Shangluo is caused by the high sensitivity of disaster pregnancy environment. [Conclusion] Densely populated areas, industrial agglomerations and high altitude areas are prone to wind disaster, and measures can be taken according to the main risk indicators that cause high risk of wind disasters to reduce the social and economic losses caused by wind disasters.