伊犁河谷制种玉米种植气候适宜性分析

Analysis of Climate Suitability for Seed Maize Cultivation in the Ili River Valley

摘要:

为优化伊犁河谷农业种植结构，促进伊犁河谷制种玉米产业健康稳定发展。基于1991—2020年伊犁河谷10个国家气象观测站气象资料，结合生产实际筛选对伊犁河谷制种玉米种植影响较大的气象因子，≥10 ℃活动积温、倒春寒天气、高温日数、大风日数。分析各县市每种气象因子的时空分布特征及其对制种玉米种植的影响，给出各县市每个气象因子的气候适宜度值。采用主成分分析法确定其影响权重，计算各县市制种玉米种植综合气候适宜度。结果显示新源县制种玉米种植综合气候适宜度值最高，达9.83，其气候非常适合制种玉米生长发育，且灾害少，是伊犁河谷发展制种玉米产业最理想的区域。河谷西部察布查尔等3县市热量条件好，但影响制种玉米的生长发育的灾害性天气较多，防灾减灾成本较高，种植效益低于新源等县市，应限制制种玉米发展规模。

Abstract:

To optimize the agricultural cultivation structure and promote the healthy and stable development of the seed maize industry in the Ili River Valley. Based on the meteorological data from 10 national meteorological observation stations in the Ili River Valley from 1991 to 2020, meteorological factors that have a significant impact on seed maize cultivation in the Ili river valley were selected in combination with practical production. These factors include ≥10℃ active accumulated temperature, late spring coldness, high temperature days, and gale days. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of each meteorological factor in various counties and cities were analyzed, along with their impact on seed maize cultivation. Additionally, climatic suitability values for each meteorological factor were provided for these counties and cities. The principal component analysis method was used to determine the influence weights of each meteorological factor, and the comprehensive climate suitability for seed maize cultivation in each county and city was calculated. The results showed that Xinyuan County has the highest comprehensive climate suitability value for seed maize cultivation, reaching 9.83. Its climate is highly conducive to the growth and development of seed maize, with fewer disasters, making it the most ideal region for the development of seed maize industry in the Ili River Valley. The western valley areas such as Qapqal, along with two other counties and cities, have favorable thermal conditions. However, there are more weather disasters that affect the growth and development of seed maize cultivation, leading to higher costs for disaster prevention and mitigation. The cultivation benefits in these areas are lower than in counties and cities like Xinyuan, and thus, the scale of seed maize cultivation should be limited.