多源融合实况分析产品在福建地区的适用性评估

Applicability evaluation of multi-source analysis products in Fujian

摘要:

利用2023年国家级多源融合实况分析产品与地面自动站和水文站观测数据,通过误差分析、技巧评分等评估指标对气温、相对湿度、风速、降水要素在福建地区的适用进行评估分析。评估结果表明：气温产品整体质量较好,平均偏差在[-0.5,0.5]℃之间,相关系数在0.999左右；相对湿度产品年平均绝对误差0.646%,相关系数为0.997,具有较高的准确性。风速产品与自动站观测较为一致,平均误差主要集中在[-0.2,0]m/s之间,内陆地区表现比沿海地区好。降水产品对小量级降水的TS评分较高,随着降水量级的增大,空报率与漏报率总体上随之增大。降水产品在台风“杜苏芮”降水过程中,无论是降水量级还是降水落区都与观测降水较为一致,但对降水峰值的刻画能力存在偏差。

Abstract:

Based on the national multi-source analysis products by the National Meteorological Information Center of CMA and ground automatic stations observation data in 2023,the applicability of hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind and precipitation in Fujian were evaluated by the error statistical analysis,skill score and other methods.The result show that the quality of temperature product is good,the mean error is between -0.5 and 0.5℃,correlation coefficient is 0.999.The mean absolute error of relative humidity is 0.646%,correlation coefficient is 0.997,which means that it has a high accuracy.The wind product are consistent with automatic station observations,with the mean error is between -0.2 and 0 m/s,Inland areas perform better than coastal areas.The TS score of precipitation products for light rain is higher than those in other classes,and as the rainfall magnitude increases,the false alarm rates and missing report rate increase in general.For Typhoon Doksuri,the precipitation product are consistent with automatic station observations with respect to the precipitation intensity and the precipitation area,but there are deviations in the reproduction capabilities of precipitation peak .