2005－2022年新疆棉花苗期风害变化规律研究

Research on The Variation Law of Wind Damage During The Cotton Seedling Stage in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2022

摘要:

风害是新疆棉花苗期主要自然灾害之一，明确该区域棉花苗期风害的演变特征，可为精细化棉花气象服务及防灾减灾策略提供科学依据。本研究基于2005－2022年新疆各棉区40个国家基本气象站的逐日最大风速资料。研究分析了棉花苗期日最大风速，≥5风日数累计次数以及不同等级风的日数变化趋势和时空分布规律。结果表明：2005－2022年新疆各棉区棉花苗期日最大风速与≥5级风日数累计次数总体呈上升趋势，南疆棉区的上升趋势尤为显著。棉花苗期风害主要以5级风事件为主，6级次之，≥7级风事件较少发生，且高发区域集中在北疆与东疆棉区。鉴于风害对棉花生产构成的威胁，建议采取包括增强防护林建设、设置阻风隔离带、及时响应气象预警等针对性防灾减灾措施，以保障棉花产业的安全与稳定。

Abstract:

Wind damage is one of the major natural disasters during the cotton seeding stage in Xinjiang. Clarifying the evolution characteristics of wind disaster in cotton seedling stage in this region can provide a scientific basis for refined cotton meteorological services and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Based on the daily maximum wind speed of 40 national basic meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2022， this study analyzed the variation trend and spatial-temporal distribution of the daily maximum wind speed， the cumulative number of days with winds ≥ force 5， and the number of days with winds at different grades during the cotton seeding stage. The results showed that from 2005 to 2022， the daily maximum wind speed and the cumulative number of days with winds ≥ force 5 during the cotton seeding stage in Xinjiang showed an overall upward trend， particularly evident in southern Xinjiang. Wind damage during the cotton seedling stage was primarily caused by force 5 wind events， followed by force 6 wind events， while events with winds ≥ force 7 occurred less frequently， with high incidence areas were concentrated in the cotton regions of northern and eastern Xinjiang. Given the threat of wind damage to cotton production， it is suggested to implement targeted disaster prevention and mitigation measures， including strengthening the construction of shelter forests， setting up windbreak isolation belt， and timely responding to meteorological early warnings， to ensure the safety and stability of cotton industry.