成都市冬半年气温与湿度复合暴露对心脑血管疾病死亡的交互作用研究

Study on the Interaction of Compound Exposure to Temperature and Humidity on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Chengdu during the winter-half year

摘要:

成都市关于气温与湿度两者协同作用的健康风险效应目前尚不清楚。基于此，本文利用成都市2010—2016年心脑血管疾病死亡数据以及同期的气象资料，采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型相结合，开展当地平均气温(T)和相对湿度(RH)对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响研究。结果表明：冬半年T与RH与心脑血管疾病死亡的关联均呈反“J”型，T和RH的阈值分别为14.8℃和74%。冬半年单独冷天(T<14.8℃)对心脑血管疾病死亡影响的相对危险度(Relative risk, RR)为1.24，造成13184例疾病死亡；湿冷和干冷对应的RR分别为1.30和1.15，造成12623例和1998例疾病死亡，湿冷和干冷天共同造成的疾病死亡人数高于单独冷天造成的疾病死亡人数。湿冷和干冷对心脑血管疾病死亡影响的风险均存在协同效应，且湿冷的复合暴露风险更显著。该研究提示我们在开展气象要素的健康风险效应研究中，应该充分考虑气象要素的复合暴露及其协同作用对相关人群健康的影响。

Abstract:

The health risk effects of the synergistic action of temperature and humidity in Chengdu are currently unclear. Based on this, this study collected the death data of Cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Chengdu from 2010 to 2016 and the meteorological data in the same period, and combined the generalized additive model and the distributed lag non-linear model to conduct a study on the impact of local average temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on the number of deaths from CVD. The results show that in the winter-half year, the associations between T, RH and the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are both in an inverted "J" shape, and the thresholds of T and RH are 14.8°C and 74% respectively. In the winter-half year, the relative risk (RR) of the impact of cold days alone (T<14.8°C) on the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is 1.24, resulting in 13,184 cases of CVD deaths; the RRs corresponding to wet-cold and dry-cold are 1.30 and 1.15 respectively, resulting in 12,623 cases and 1,998 cases of CVD deaths. The number of disease deaths jointly caused by wet-cold and dry-cold days is higher than that caused by cold days alone. The risks of the impact of wet-cold and dry-cold on the death of CVD both have a synergistic effect, and the compound exposure risk of wet-cold is more significant. This study reminds us that in the study of the health risk effects of meteorological elements, we should fully consider the compound exposure of meteorological elements and their synergistic effects on the health of relevant populations.