鲁西致灾冰雹时空特征及移动路径研究

Spatial-temporal characteristics and moving tracks of hail clouds in western Shandong

摘要:

利用1978—2020年鲁西地区冰雹观测资料，分析了该地区冰雹时空变化规律和主要影响系统，并结合K-均值聚类法对雹云路径进行了客观分析。结果表明：（1）鲁西地区的冰雹分布呈现明显的日变化、月变化和年际变化，2001—2020年冰雹日数较1978—2000年有所减少，冰雹空间分布特征可概括为“北多南少”；（2）冰雹入侵路径可分为北路、西北路、西路、西南路和局地等5类，其中西北路占比最高，西南路占比最低；西路雹云的平均生命周期最长，西南路雹云的平均生命周期最短；（3）冰雹主要天气尺度系统可分为5类:低涡类、低槽类、横槽类、西北气流类和副高边缘类，低涡类占比最高。

Abstract:

Based on the hail observation data in western Shandong during 1978 - 2020, the characteristics of hail variation was analyzed. Furthermore, hail clouds tracks was studied by using K-means clustering algorithm. The results show that: (1) The hail in western Shandong present obvious spatial-temporal characteristics. Compare to before 2000, the total hail days show decreasing trend after 2000. The spatial distribution characteristics of hail tend to be higher in the north, but lower in the south. (2) There are five main hail paths, including north path, northwest path, west path, southwest path and local generation path. Among the five types of hail paths, northwest path account for the largest portion, southwest path take the lowest portion. The west path produce the longest duration, southwest path produce the shortest duration. (3)There are five synoptic-scale circulation patterns, namely low vortex, low trough, transverse trough, northwest current and the edge of the subtropical high, which low vortex type has the largest share.