黄河流域陕西段气候变化特征及预估

Characteristics and Prediction of Climate Change in Shaanxi Section of the Yellow River Basin

摘要:

利用1961—2022年黄河流域陕西段温度、降水等气象观测资料、CIMP6气候情景模式下气温和降水预估数据资料，通过趋势分析、M-K检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，对黄河流域陕西段气候变化特征进行分析及预估。结果显示，近62年来，黄河流域陕西段年平均气温呈显著增加趋势，年降水量呈不显著减少趋势，400 mm等降水量线不断北移。流域极端气候事件趋势发生频率和强度增加，尤其近20年增加明显。在SSP 1-2.6、SSP 2-4.5和SSP 5-8.5情景下流域年平均气温、年降水量呈增加趋势。陕西黄河流域整体呈现暖湿化特征，部分地区生态环境会向好发展，农业气候资源会有所优化，但同时也使气象灾害的风险增大，需通过趋利避害，积极应对。

Abstract:

Based on meteorological observation data of temperature and precipitation in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2022， along with estimated data of temperature and precipitation under the CIMP6 climate scenario model， we analyzed and projected the climate change characteristics in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin by trend analysis， M-K test， and Morlet wavelet analysis methods. The results indicated that over the past 62 years， the annual mean temperature in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin showed a significant increasing trend， while the annual precipitation exhibited a non-significant decreasing trend， with the 400mm isohyet continuously shifting northward. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events in the basin have increased， particularly over the last two decades. Under the SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， and SSP5-8.5 scenarios， both the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation in the basin show increasing trends. The overall characteristic of the Shaanxi Yellow River Basin is a transition towards a warmer and more humid climate， which may lead to positive ecological developments in some areas， and optimization of agroclimatic resources， but also an increasing risk of meteorological disasters. Therefore， it is necessary to take positively respond measures by maximizing benefits and minimizing harms.