商洛市降雨型地质灾害等级预报预警阈值对比分析与应用

Comparative Analysis and Application of the Early Warning Threshold for Rainfall-induced Geological Hazards Grade Forecast in Shangluo City

摘要:

利用商洛市新增600多个雨量站降雨数据和2020年全国地质灾害普查成果，对商洛市降雨型地质灾害阈值重新进行了研究，并与2010年研究成果进行对比分析，结果显示本次确定的各易发区阈值起始值和阈值范围都有明显变化，阈值有向中间集中的趋势，即高易发区的阈值起始值增加，不易发区的阈值起始值减小，各易发区3个等级阈值范围呈显减小趋势。泥石流起始阈值减小，3个等级阈值范围也显著减小，造成这一变化的主要原因是这次获取的地质灾害所对应的降雨数据较2010年密集，匹配的降雨量范围也由5 km细化到3 km，数据质量有所提高。利用商洛市气象台SWAN系统、实况降雨量和逐3 小时网格（3 km × 3 km）降雨预报量计算得到的阈值开展了地质灾害等级预报预警应用，效果良好。

Abstract:

Based on the precipitation data from more than 600 new rainfall stations in Shangluo City and the results of the National Geological Disaster Survey in 2020, the threshold of rainfall-type geological disaster in Shangluo City was re-studied and compared with the research results in 2010. The results showed that the threshold starting value and range of each prone area determined by this time had obvious changes, and the threshold value tended to concentrate in the middle. That is, the threshold initial value of the high-prone region increases, the threshold initial value of the non-prone region decreases, and the threshold ranges of three levels in each prone region show a decreasing trend. The initial threshold of debris flow decreases, and the threshold range of the three levels also decreases significantly. The main reason for this change is that the rainfall data corresponding to the geological disaster obtained this time is denser than that in 2010, and the matching rainfall range is also refined from 5 km to 3 km, and the data quality is improved. Based on the SWAN system of Shangluo Meteorological Observatory, the actual rainfall and the threshold value calculated by the 3-hour grid (3 km × 3 km) rainfall forecast, the geological hazard level forecast, and early warning application are carried out, and the effect is good.