河北省大风气候特征和灾害危险性空间分布

Climatic Characteristics of Gale and Spatial Distribution of Disaster Risk in Hebei Province

摘要:

基于1978—2020年河北省142个国家气象站大风观测数据，分析了省域大风气候特征，并结合自然灾害风险理论，选取大风日数和日极大风速为危险性特征指标构建了危险性指数，据此开展了河北省大风灾害危险性评估，得到了省域大风灾害危险性空间分布规律。结论如下：河北省平均最大风速总体呈下降趋势， 1978年平均最大风速值最大；2014—2020年平均极大风速呈上升趋势，与此段时间最大风速的变化趋势相同；全省4月份大风日数最多，9月份最少；大风日数呈现西北向东南递减的总体趋势，沿海沧州地区又增多的特征；平均最大风速分布呈现为西北高东北低，平均极大风速分布呈现为西北、西南高东南低，张家口坝上平均最大和极大风速均最高；大风灾害致灾危险性呈西北高东北、西南低的趋势，其中张家口坝上、承德丰宁县一带最高。

Abstract:

Used gale data from 1984 to 2020 of 142 national meteorological stations, the climatic characteristics of gale in Hebei province were analyzed. Based on the disaster risk assessment theory, we chosen gale days and daily extreme wind speed as risky indexes and assessed the gale disaster risk. It is concluded that the average maximum wind speed tends to decrease, whose peak value appeared in 1978. The average extreme wind speed tends to increase in 2014—2020, which is similar to the trend of the maximum wind speed during this period. Gale days in April is peak while it is valley in September. Gale days tend to decline from the northwest to the southeast part of Hebei Province, while they increase in coastal region of Cangzhou. The average maximum wind speed is high in northwest and low in northeast. The average extreme wind speed is high in northwest and southwest while low in southeast. Both of the highest region of these two speeds appear in Bashang region in Zhangjiakou. The trend of the gale disaster risk is high in northwest and low in northeast and southwest. The highest risk parts are the Bashang region in Zhangjiakou and Fengning, a county in Chengde.