超短期风速预报方法研究进展

Research progresses on ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting methods

摘要:

由于传统化石能源的短缺和环境污染日益严重，绿色能源成为发展方向。风能是一种清洁的可再生能源,风力发电在国家能源格局中占比日益提高。但由于风力发电的间歇性、波动性对电网造成越来越严重影响，风电的实时调度显得尤为重要，超短期风速预测相关研究得到广泛关注。本文综合分析国内外风速预测相关文献，从物理方法、统计与机器学习方法、组合方法三个方面对超短期风速预测方法的研究现状进行归纳总结，对比了主要预测方法的优缺点，给出了不确定分析和误差评价指标，探讨了在超短期风速预测研究中应重点解决的问题和发展方向。

Abstract:

Due to the shortage of traditional fossil energy and increasingly serious environmental pollution, green energy has become the development direction. Wind energy is a kind of clean and renewable energy, and the proportion of wind power generation in the national energy structure is enhancing increasingly. However, as the intermittent and volatility of wind power generation bring more and more serious impact on the power grid, the real-time power dispatch becomes particularly important. Related research works on ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting have drawn extensive attention. Firstly, the related domestic and international wind speed forecasting researches are comprehensively analyzed. Secondly, the research status of ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting methods are summarized from three aspects: physical methods, statistical and machine learning methods,and combination methods. Thirdly, the advantages and disadvantages of the main forecasting methods are compared.In addition, the uncertainty analysis and the error evaluation metrics are provided. Finally,the issues and directions that should be mainly addressed in the research of ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting are discussed.