塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地逐日太阳总辐射模拟计算 -以达理雅博依绿洲为例

Estimate of Solar Radiation in the Taklimakan Desert Hinterland: A case study in the DaliyaBoyi Oasis

摘要:

基于塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地面积最大的天然孤立绿洲达理雅博依太阳总辐射实测资料，运用H.L.Penman经验公式模拟计算了该地区2015年逐日总辐射累计量，并与实测值进行对比分析与误差检验。结果显示，此气候学方法虽能成功地模拟沙漠腹地总辐射的年内变化趋势，但春季偏差稍大。该模拟值与实测值的相对误差为0.77%，平均偏差、平均绝对偏差和均方根偏差分别为-0.11，2.97，3.89 MJ·m-2·d-1，平均绝对误差为21.02%，表明模拟该经验公式的参数还可做进一步调整。

Abstract:

The study of solar radiation include its characteristic and variation, is of great significance to explore regional ecology system formation and evolution. The Taklimakan Desert, the largest mobile desert in China, is located in the center of the Tarim Basin. The oasis study in this desert is important to understand ecosystem process in arid land. However, for traffic problem, the desert"s meteorology datum, especially solar radiation data (long period), are very scare, which brings difficult in related oasis ecosystem process further discuss. In this work, the Daliyaboyi, the largest isolated pristine oasis in the Taklimakan desert hinterland, was taken as a case study to simulate the solar radiation. The daily total solar radiation of the Daliyaboyi oasis cumulants in 2015 were simulated based on the H.L.Penman"s method Q=S0(a+bs). Using this formula, the simulated datum Q in the natural oasis had been derived, and then compared with observed datum to calculate the bias and absolute errors. The result shows that we selected method of climatological empirical formula successfully estimate the annual variation trend of the total radiation. Even though, there exist a slightly but relatively larger bias between simulated and measured results in calculating the solar radiation in spring. This is because the Taklimakan Desert"s sandstorm activities are more frequent in spring, which weakens radiation intensity of the sun reach the ground. Through our calculations, the relative error of simulated values was 0.77 %. The mean bias error, the mean absolute bias error and the root square error were -0.11,2.97,3.89 MJ·m-2·d-1 respectively. And the mean absolute percentage error was 21.02%. These show that the parameters of the empirical formula need to be further modified before simulating the solar radiation when applied to area around the Taklimakan desert hinter land .