ECMWF细网格数值预报产品在乌鲁木齐东南大风 预报中的释用

The applying of ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data in southeast gale in Urumqi

摘要:

摘要: 本文利用中央气象台 2011 年 9 月开始向各省气象台试运行下发的ECMWF细网格(0.25白0.25? 数值预报产品和区域自动站、风廓线雷达等常规观测资料，对乌鲁木齐2013年春季南郊发生的一次东南大风过程进行诊断分析和预报释用，揭示了乌鲁木齐东南大风发生和维持的物理机制，发现细网格资料在预报时空分辨率和预报性能等方面均有提高，对东南大风预报具有指示意义，提高了预报的准确性。分析表明：达坂城至南郊一带东南风频发是由于春季地面蒙古高压部分南掉，形成东西间气压梯度力同乌鲁木齐南郊地形狭管方向一致时，并在“慢坡”重力下滑的共同作用下所形成的回流型东南大风；细网格850hPa风矢量、10 m高度上的风、海平面气压场、2m高度上的温度等要素预报，对乌鲁木齐南郊东南大风的起止时间、风速量级及落区的预报有较好指示意义。细网格数值预报产品弥补了时空不足的缺陷，使得预报员对系统发生、发展的不同阶段有更清楚的认识，有助于及时准确预报东南大风的形成、发展、结束过程，减轻此类灾害性天气的危害。

Abstract:

Abstract: This article applies ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data(0.25白0.25? from NMC in September 2011 ,the data of AWOS ,wind profiler data as well as regular data to southeast gale forecasting and diagnostic analyzing in Urumqi southern suburbs in spring, in order to reveal the occurrence and the maintaining of southeast gale, so we can understand the meaning of the ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data for southeast gale forecasting and raise accuracy rate of southeast gale forecasting. The analysis indicates: southeast gale in Urumqi southern suburbs to Dabancheng is caused by Mongolian high pressure moving southward. The refluent gale forms from the east-west pressure gradient, terrain of Urumqi with narrow tube direction, also decline in the slow slope gravity together. The 850hPa wind, 10-meter wind, sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature etc are very useful for southeast gale forecasting in the start and end of gale, wind scale and falling area. ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data make up the spatial and temporal distribution, that let the forecasters understand the occurrence and the development of the weather system more clearer. It is also helpful in predicting the generation, development and dissipation of southeast gale and could reduce the damage caused by the southeast gale event.