河北省大风气候特征和灾害危险性空间分布

Climatic Characteristics of Gale and Spatial Distribution of Disaster Risk in Hebei Province

摘要:

基于1978—2020年河北省142个国家气象站大风观测数据，分析河北省大风气候特征，结合自然灾害风险评估理论，选取大风日数和日极大风速为危险性特征指标构建危险性指数，开展河北省大风灾害危险性评估，得到省域大风灾害危险性空间分布规律。结果表明：河北省平均最大风速总体呈下降趋势，1978年平均最大风速值最大；2014—2020年平均极大风速呈上升趋势，与最大风速的变化趋势相同；河北省4月大风日数最多，9月最少；大风日数呈现西北向东南递减、沿海沧州地区又增多的特征；平均最大风速呈现西北高、东北低的特征，平均极大风速呈现西北和西南高、东南低的特征，张家口坝上平均最大风速和极大风速均最高；大风灾害致灾危险性呈西北高、东北与西南低的特征，其中张家口坝上和承德丰宁县一带最高。

Abstract:

Using gale data from 142 national meteorological stations from 1978 to 2020, this study analyzes the climatic characteristics of gales in Hebei Province. Based on disaster risk assessment theory, the number of gale days and daily extreme wind speeds were selected as risk indices to assess gale disaster risk, revealing the spatial distribution of wind disaster risk in Hebei Province. The analysis yielded the following conclusions: The average maximum wind speed shows a decreasing trend, with its peak value recorded in 1978. However, the average extreme wind speed exhibited an increasing trend from 2014 to 2020, consistent with the trend of maximum wind speeds during the same period. The number of gale days peaks in April and reaches a minimum in September. Their spatial distribution shows a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast of Hebei Province, with the exception of an increase in gale days in the coastal region of Cangzhou. The average maximum wind speed is higher in the northwest and lower in the northeast, while the average extreme wind speed is also higher in the northwest and southwest, but lower in the southeast. The highest values for both wind speeds are found in the Bashang region of Zhangjiakou. The spatial distribution of gale disaster risk indicates higher risks in the northwest and lower risks in the northeast and southwest, with the highest-risk areas being the Bashang region in Zhangjiakou and Fengning County in Chengde.